If the correction lasts between 4-8 weeks, then equities could see significant declines.

If: If the correction lasts between 4-8 weeks

Then: then equities could see significant declines.

Last leg before a cyclical decline

This equity market rally is the last leg before a major cyclical decline.

We have warned of a pending short-term correction for the last two weeks.

We expect corrections in the equity market to retrace approximately 50% of the recent rally from the late March 2026 lows.

We still think it is possible for the SPX to reach about 8,500 in late summer/fall, once the correction concludes.

The bull cycle in global equity markets continues although breadth is weak, and leadership is highly concentrated in the AI theme and semiconductors in particular.