If a credible non-Intel CPO platform or customer win emerges for AI switches, it challenges the Intel-only CPO winner thesis.

If: A non-Intel player announces or wins a credible co-packaged optics platform for AI switches or rack-scale deployments.

Then: The Intel-only CPO thesis weakens and the CPO winner map may broaden to networking, optical component, or foundry participants.

If non-Korea/non-US memory suppliers such as Nanya enter the Vera Rubin supply chain, the incumbent HBM scarcity premium may weaken.

If: Non-Korea/non-US memory suppliers such as Nanya enter the Vera Rubin supply chain as LPDDR suppliers.

Then: Incumbent HBM scarcity premium may weaken; potential positive watch for Nanya and risk watch for HBM incumbents.

If TPUs or competing accelerators substitute more SRAM for HBM, expected HBM intensity per unit may fall.

If: TPUs or competing accelerators use more SRAM or other local memory to reduce HBM requirements.

Then: Long-term HBM demand intensity assumptions may weaken.

AI Boom and Economic Concerns

The AI boom is driving significant growth in select sectors, but this concentrated market growth raises concerns about sustainability and potential corrections.

Intel-only CPO winner map depends on packaging bottleneck exclusivity

The Intel CPO bull case in this memory cell depends on CPO being constrained by packaging, thermals, yield, and reliability where EMIB and internal silicon photonics create a differentiated path. Credible non-Intel CPO evidence would challenge the winner map.

HBM scarcity may be challenged by new supply entrants and memory-architecture optimization

The AI memory bull thesis depends partly on sustained HBM scarcity and rising HBM intensity. New supply entrants such as Nanya in Vera Rubin LPDDR, or accelerator designs using more SRAM, could weaken the scarcity premium if confirmed.

We remain medium-term bullish on the US economy and US equities.

Core inflationary readings are stable and there are no signs of wage increases required to sustain excess demand.

The geopolitical landscape remains highly fragile, and the periodically but only selectively open Strait of Hormuz is a major threat to the health of the world economy due to growing scarcity of important commodities, including oil and natural gas.

If commodity prices remain elevated and the AI boom continues, bond yields will likely rise again.

The bull cycle in global equity markets continues although breadth is weak, and leadership is highly concentrated in the AI theme and semiconductors in particular.

@Kaizen_Investor posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @red1wj Need to look into this company, will do it tomorrow! I’ll find some time. Thanks for keep recommending it to me.

@Kaizen_Investor posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: Hi Bob, a little time away on X probably won’t hurt. You won’t be able to have fomo to a certain stock. The little thing going on with your family is probably why you daytraded ...

@Frenchie_ posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: Je vais pas te la donner. Ça serait te voler le meilleur qui est la recherche Un seul indice : les actionneurs Trouve ce qui coûte le plus cher à bouger sur un robot, remonte la...

@Frenchie_ posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: 🇰🇷 Jensen Huang a dit que la robotique serait la prochaine grande industrie de Corée du Sud Je pense que ces boites peuvent bénéficier de ce catalyseur

@ContrarianCurse posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: I think Karpathy bringing AutoResearch to Ant ends up being one of the biggest moments in AI

@ParadisLabs posted an unverified tracked-account tweet mentioning QCOM, NVDA: $QCOM up 6.84% after hours: $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang: "Qualcomm is doing a great job...Buy their stock." How many of you paid attention to my bull thesis?

@ContrarianCurse posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: Ideally you want capex to be linear and operating profits to be an exponential Meta setting up nice to do the opposite! That sucker ain’t 18x. Prob much higher true multiple

@labubu_trader posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @Z04_A1 Let's wait for two more days

@labubu_trader posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: RT @diyas_1989: why iran stop retaliate after israel bombs its remaining oil refinery? my 2 cents 1. Iran is a veeeeeery droooooought country, they use underground water to irri...

@labubu_trader posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: RT @labubu_trader: @AntonLaVay You have to be patient to wait until Wednesday . Look at 05/19 how spx fought 10d EMA and failed but recovered in the following session. But after...

@labubu_trader posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @AntonLaVay You have to be patient to wait until Wednesday . Look at 05/19 how spx fought 10d EMA and failed but recovered in the following session. But after today lost 7400 on...

@ContrarianCurse posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: Cannot knock the success here. Not one bit. But like I said - this is where lack of priors would most definitely help

@pennycheck posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @demian_ai @CaesarCapitalz 👀

@Kaizen_Investor posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @hectoribarez76 It’s primary listing is in the UK. I have the British version as well. Via Nasdaq you can access it via an OTC.

@Kaizen_Investor posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @Frenchie_ @Prenchie_ He looks cooler though

@The_Airmass posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: Show me a single human being who got rich following Bank of America market calls.

@The_Airmass posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: Fuck Bank of America and their bearish bullshit. Max long. 🚀

@jasonschips posted an unverified tracked-account tweet mentioning LITE, COHR, NOK, MRVL, AXTI, AIXA: Besides the obvious $LITE $COHR $NOK $MRVL, InP substrates and MOCVD ($AIXA $AXTI) are actually very underrated beneficiaries here. InP PIC could possibly take up more wafer are...

@The_Airmass posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @richardxlin There is no bear case

@The_Airmass posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @LittGs @PogueThePatriot Yes. Because we will have correction and then other better opportunities from there.

@The_Airmass posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @PogueThePatriot Yes

@The_Airmass posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @cbum_sol You are showing symptoms of Low-T

@The_Airmass posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: If you are long AF on Micron like me, just relax and enjoy the ride until end of month. Micron wave 3 is a powerhouse. 🚀🚀🚀

@Kaizen_Investor posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: Filtronic back up 44% after some doomsellers called the stock overvalued. If I have another 10-bagger in portfolio, it is Filtronic. In the center of the whole space communicati...

@Kaizen_Investor posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @TheBigBerbowski Congrats man! Only the beginning

@ParadisLabs posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @batman_live2024 I was actually already long a few of these names already! Infineon, Intel, and Corning mainly

@Kaizen_Investor posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @SamRuss60265097 @contrariandesk Need to dig deeper but this is the article

@ParadisLabs posted an unverified tracked-account tweet mentioning 1: @Kaizen_Investor Thanks so much Kaizen! I truly believe anyone can do the same. Even if it's just $1, it all helps in the end!

@Kaizen_Investor posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @contrariandesk I looked over it, thanks for bringing me up to date. Interesting partnership.

@Kaizen_Investor posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @ParadisLabs Man, what an amazing human being are you? Huge respect, thanks for taking care of the ones who are less fortunate.

@Globalflows posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: RT @JacobRobinsonJD: America had long been home to the world's best builders. Regulation by enforcement changed that. As @jchervinsky explains in this clip, @HyperliquidX's foun...

@Frenchie_ posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @Prenchie_ @KenshiiWCWC Et donc c’est pour ça que tu m’as fait chauve ?

@ParadisLabs posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: Tbh it's more of a redevelopment project instead of a fresh build, lucked out on location vs cost trade off in London. Running costs will be fairly high initially, but have luck...

A tweet claims the Nanya/Rubin rumor is wrong and says checks frame the exposure as client/mobile LPDDR only, not Nvidia Rubin.

A tweet claims Nanya checks around Rubin LPDDR are getting stronger and frames non-Korean supply entering the chain as important.

@ParadisLabs posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @FundaAI Really appreciate it! Always a pleasure reading your guys' work!

@ParadisLabs posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @imzainvest Oh I donate to GOSH a fair bit currently - have a look through my profile and you'll see! They're amazing

@ParadisLabs posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @moninvestor I have faith in you, keep grinding!

@Kaizen_Investor posted an unverified tracked-account tweet mentioning 50, 60: @domergirlnyc That's impossible to say. So many things going on with Iran and SpaceX... Can't give you an answer on that unfortunately. Most analyst price targets are between $5...

@Frenchie_ posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @demian_ai 😂 Je sais pas comment je dois le prendre

@crypto_condom posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: RT @AggrNews: CITRINI PROMOTES HYPERLIQUID IN LATEST POST, CALLING IT THE ANTIDOTE TO FTX'S FAILURE: SUBSTACK

@Kaizen_Investor posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @TheBigBerbowski Thanks for including me 🤝

@Kaizen_Investor posted an unverified tracked-account tweet mentioning PL, GOOGL: Something I did not emphasize enough in my $PL deep-dive is how bullish the partnership with $GOOGL is. It's an advantage no other company in the industry has. A first hurdle fo...

@Frenchie_ posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @WhiteBoyTorfin @PowerPasheur @Prenchie_ Putain ca présage rien de bon pour moi alors

@Frenchie_ posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @SebSmusings Les chutes permettent de voir le volume de rachat sur les entreprise qui ont le vent en poupe. C'est ce qu'on à fait après avoir regardé la tendance sur X ce week-end

@Frenchie_ posted an unverified tracked-account tweet mentioning MRVL, AAOI, INTC: Délirant ce qui se passe sur $MRVL >Le titre bondit de 14% sur la séance Pour moi c'est avec $AAOI et $INTC les trois grand gagnants de la journée Je ne recommanderai pas de cha...

@The_Airmass posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @cryptowonton Yes

@The_Airmass posted an unverified tracked-account tweet mentioning 1500: @cryptowonton @TradexWhisperer @solr888 No, like 2 weeks. $1500 in 2 weeks.

@Frenchie_ posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @mlehardy75 @Firisis_ STMPA vient d'imprimer un +12% C'est l'ensemble des semi qui push mais en effet, surtout les deux titres majeurs que sont AAOI et MRVL. D'ailleurs on à don...

@ParadisLabs posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @KawzInvests Ahh, my man! We need to connect again to find more Taiwanese companies btw!

@ParadisLabs posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @mkfilko Less so about the $ amount! Every little bit goes a long way! Regardless, I have faith in you! You're killing it right now

@ParadisLabs posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @BULLOFBRITAIN My man! As a fellow Brit, you'll appreciate all the work they do - same as GOSH!

@ContrarianCurse posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: In terms of AI processing info - listening to earnings call probably the #1 still worth doing manually. A well experienced ear and someone that has covered the stock for a long ...

@Frenchie_ posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @Firisis_ Dead cat serait relou

@Frenchie_ posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @PowerPasheur @Prenchie_ Venant du double ultime c’est plaisant, très plaisant

@mkfilko posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @ChairmansLedger Unfortunately it is those types of posts which get the most views. It's like life, people want the easy way out (quick dopamine hits, doomscrolling, sugar) but ...

@Kaizen_Investor posted an unverified tracked-account tweet mentioning WOLF: A lot of investors wondering how to profit form the new NVIDIA's 800V HVDC architecture. $WOLF published a great white paper on why SiC is necessary for the pivot. Here is my su...

@jasonschips posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: FYI if you don't follow me I post free chip-and-AI-related articles biweekly on X!

@pennycheck posted an unverified tracked-account tweet: @ScoCal67 @NVIDIAAIInfra @nvidia @SKhynix This was the most recent/ impactful

@Saint_Pump

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@The_Airmass

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@Kaizen_Investor

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